Tuesday, April 5, 2011

Diary of a Trader - April 5th, 2011

Another dull day in dullsville. Is it too much to ask for a little action, a little reverse of a reverse, followed with another reversal? Everyone on their toes, never a dull moment...

But the more mundane reality is that stocks barely move. Think about this: the first quarter saw a gain of 6 percent. Divide that 6 percent by 60 trading days in the quarter, and we averaged a 1/10 of a percent daily gain. And the bulk of the gains came on the first and last days of each month. So not only can I fall asleep between 10:30 and 3 o clock daily, I can take off from the 3rd to the 27th of every month, and miss practically nothing.

Enough spitting in the wind for now. Onto todays bull/bear dichotomy.
Bears: I hate double BB's helicopter like dollar dropping. Bulls: I love paying 3.50 for a gallon of gas if I am up 20 percent in my portfolio. Funny thing about this is that we had the same type of inflation in 08 without QE, and the volatility was even lower than it is today. The bears are clueless.

Anyway, this utterly dull dichotomy seemingly has gone on forever, or at least can be traced back to the trading low of triple 6's, back in March of 09. I think it is a giant red herring.

As for me, I would say my day was 70 percent angst- having missed a short squeeze or two or three; 20 percent frustration with the lack of volatility and 10 percent relief at having gotten out of a wrong way position with a profit.

I am seeing too many short squeezes, these are usually terminal moves, but god knows just when they will end. I guess options are way to play, but once these plays pop, you are not recouping your money. The big caps are going nowhere slowly, and there is zero action there. That leaves us with the small caps and there endless bid. All in all a rather odd assortment to pick from and trade, and my answer is too be conservative and play small. I'd rather limit my losses, and take small gains.

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